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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: May 19 2019 8:36 pm


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Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

000
ACUS01 KWNS 191944
SWODY1
SPC AC 191943

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...OHIO VALLEY...AND GREAT LAKES...AND
TONIGHT ACROSS WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail are expected
today across parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area and
Mid-Atlantic into western New England.  Severe hail also may become
concentrated late tonight into tomorrow morning over parts of the
southern High Plains.

...20z Outlook Update...
Much of the ongoing outlook is on track, with minor changes to risk
areas to clear behind ongoing convection from Lake Michigan
southward into east-central Illinois.  An additional Marginal risk
has been introduced in Louisiana and far southeast Texas, where
convergence on the western periphery of a remnant cold pool from
earlier convection has resulted in a few thunderstorms.  Strong
instability and modest deep shear resides just on the western extent
of the zone of convergence, and storms may pose a hail/wind risk for
the next few hours.

..Cook.. 05/19/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019/

...NY/PA into western New England...
Strong heating is occurring over much of NY/PA today, as
southwesterly low level winds transport increasingly moist air into
the region.  Dewpoints are climbing into the 60s over this region,
which will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. 
Thunderstorms will increase in coverage early this afternoon and
spread eastward across parts of NY/PA and eventually into parts of
NJ and western New England.  Forecast soundings indicate sufficient
vertical shear for organized multicell storm clusters and perhaps a
supercell or two.  Locally gusty/damaging winds appear possible in
the strongest cells, along with some risk of hail.  This threat
should diminish by mid-evening.

...IL into MI...
A broad shield of clouds and associated precipitation is affecting
much of eastern IL, IN, lower MI, and western Ohio.  Clearing will
occur this afternoon in the wake of this system, leading to
sufficient instability for the redevelopment of scattered
thunderstorms.  Large scale forcing is weak in this region, and
overall convective coverage/intensity is expected to be rather weak.
Nevertheless, a few strong to severe storms are possible, capable of
hail and damaging wind gusts.

...West TX overnight...
12z model solutions are consistent in the development of vigorous
thunderstorms over west TX late tonight as the next potent upper
trough begins to affect the Plains.  These storms will pose a risk
of large hail - mainly after 10z.

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com