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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Jul 22 2018 6:20 pm


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Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

000
ACUS01 KWNS 221631
SWODY1
SPC AC 221630

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE GULF COAST STATES AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms, primarily capable of damaging winds and large hail,
will be possible across parts of the Southeast and northern/central
Plains this afternoon and evening. A few marginally severe storms
are also possible over a portion of the Middle Atlantic region.

...Gulf Coastal area including Florida...

Numerous storms are in the process of developing within the weakly
capped, but moderately unstable environment across northern FL.
These storms will be capable of producing mainly isolated damaging
wind. Additional storms are expected to develop/intensify farther
west along and south of a cold front across southern AL as well as
in association with sea breeze boundaries over the FL Panhandle.
These storms will be embedded within 35-45 kt unidirectional
effective bulk shear within base of upper low circulation. Damaging
wind and large hail will be possible with both multicell and
supercell storm modes.

...Northern through central Plains region...

A shortwave trough will continue east through Saskatchewan and
Manitoba along the international border and eventually affecting
extreme northern ND. A cold front will accompany this feature
through the northern and central Plains today and tonight. A
corridor of moderate instability is likely in pre-frontal warm
sector along with sufficient (35-45 kt) deep-layer shear for
supercells from ND into SD. Storms will likely develop over the
Dakotas later this afternoon posing a risk for isolated large hail
and damaging wind gusts. Other storms might develop farther south
along the front across central NE by early evening where weaker
shear will promote multicells, but the thermodynamic environment
will support some threat for a few instances of damaging wind and
large hail. Other storms will form over the higher terrain of CO and
WY and spread east into the High Plains this afternoon and evening
with a modest threat for damaging wind and hail.

...Middle Atlantic region...

Some destabilization is likely in this region today and potential
will exist for storms to redevelop and interact with a weak warm
front as they lift north. Low-level hodographs in vicinity of this
boundary will support a modest risk for a few low-level
mesoscyclones and a brief tornado or two. Reference SWOMCD 1132 for
more information.

..Dial/Nauslar.. 07/22/2018

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com