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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Sep 21 2018 11:16 pm


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Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

000
ACUS01 KWNS 211954
SWODY1
SPC AC 211952

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible
across parts of the lower Great Lakes region through this evening.

...Discussion...
No significant changes have been made to the ongoing forecast,
except for removing areas behind the primary surface trough
(extending from western Kentucky to western Ohio as of 20Z).
Convection is slowly deepening along the trough from the mid Ohio
Valley to Lakes Erie and Ontario this afternoon. Storms are still
expected to evolve into a QLCS structure, given relatively
uni-directional deep-layer flow and strong low-level shear. Damaging
winds will be the primary threat, although a couple brief tornadoes
could occur from eastern Ohio to western New York. By mid/late
evening, convection should be entering a considerably less favorable
thermodynamic environment across eastern PA/NY and New England,
where stratus clouds have been persistent. A localized damaging wind
threat could be maintained given strong wind fields, but with most
large-scale ascent focused in Canada, deeper convective circulations
(and resultant downward momentum transfer) should diminish notably
overnight.

..Picca.. 09/21/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018/

...Lower Great Lakes from 21-03z...
A midlevel shortwave trough over the upper Great Lakes will move
quickly eastward over southern ON and QC through tonight, as an
associated surface cyclone moves northeastward and deepens from Lake
Superior.  A trailing cold front will progress eastward across the
OH Valley and lower Great Lakes by this evening.  Surface heating in
cloud breaks south and west of a surface warm front will allow
destabilization across western NY into western PA/OH, in advance of
the cold front.  Thunderstorm development is expected along the cold
front and pre-frontal trough by mid afternoon from OH into
southwestern ON, and perhaps along a weak lake breeze along the east
shore of Lake Erie.  

12z regional soundings revealed rather poor lapse rates above 700
mb, though surface temperatures in the 80s with boundary-layer
dewpoints in the 68-72 F range will support MLCAPE of 1000-2000
J/kg.  Deep-layer vertical shear will increase with the approach of
the midlevel wave from the Great Lakes, with effective bulk shear
expected to strengthen to 45-55 kt.  Though supercells will be
possible with the initial development (mainly in southwestern ON),
largely front-parallel shear vectors and deep-layer flow suggest
that convection will evolve rather quickly into a squall line in the
21-00z time frame.  Damaging winds will be the main threat with the
line of storms, given the potential for downward transport of 50-60
kt low-midlevel flow.  Along the east edge of the warm sector, there
will be a narrow zone of enhanced low-level shear coincident with
surface-based buoyancy.  Based on the expected linear convective
mode, a few embedded circulations and a couple of QLCS tornadoes
will be possible.  The severe threat should increase by 20-21z
beginning in central/northeastern OH, then spread east-northeastward
into western PA/NY through this evening.  As the storms move east of
the stronger buoyancy and into central NY/PA, weakening is expected
by about 03z.

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com