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SPC Day 1 Outlook

Updates are issued at 0600 UTC, 1300 UTC, 1630 UTC, 2000 UTC, 0100 UTC - Current UTC time: Jan 16 2019 12:01 pm


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Day 2


Categorical Day 1 Outlook

000
ACUS01 KWNS 160547
SWODY1
SPC AC 160545

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are likely late Wednesday across parts of
northern and central California. Gusty winds may accompany this
activity.

...CA...

00z short-range model guidance is in general agreement that a strong
short-wave trough will approach the northern CA coast by 17/06z with
substantial height falls expected to spread inland during the
overnight hours. Large-scale forcing for ascent will likely
encourage weak elevated convection ahead of the front during the
early evening but this activity should struggle to attain heights
necessary for lightning. However, significant mid-level cooling will
aid destabilization as lapse rates steepen just ahead of a
pronounced surface front that should move onshore around 06z.
Forecast soundings along the northern CA coast suggest near-surface
based buoyancy will evolve along the front which will likely result
in one or more strongly-forced bands of convection. Very strong
southwesterly flow is forecast just off the surface and there is
some concern strong winds may mix to the surface with the frontal
convection. NAM forecast sounding at SFO at 17/06z exhibits SBCAPE
on the order of 300 J/kg with 50kt southwesterly flow at 1k feet
AGL. At this time will not introduce MRGL for gusty winds but if
sufficient instability can materialize a few strong storms may be
possible with the frontal convection.

..Darrow/Leitman.. 01/16/2019

$$
        

Day 3

Day 4

Largly based on original scripts from Ken True: saratoga-weather.org and Rick Curly: ricksturf.com